Here is Chanos in Nov 2010: 55 office cubicle for every man in China New Residential real estate accounts for 15% of GDP 60% of GDP is towards fixed asset investment Buyers in China purchased Nike Air Max Stussy 95 44% more residential space than they did in 2008 Dubai during its peak had 240 sq. Mtrs dollars in GDP. China has 4x that. Lending went up 95% yoy 2009 2008 and up 60% through 2010 Perpetual China Bull Goldman is forecasting a 10 20% decline in housing prices in 2011. Chinese vacancy rates are accepted to be unusually high but exact numbers are extremely hard to find. At least in Beijing, rent is quite expensive, Nike Air Max 95 Ultra Jacquard Sail
throwawayaway 112 days ago link
josai 113 days ago link
China birth rate is above a huge number of countries, including Holland, Switzerland, Germany and Canada. It a problem, yes, but let not overstate it.
house was always interesting, typically it would be comfortably over 50. I have friends working in China as well, but never actually lived or worked there myself.
roel_v 112 days ago link
The idiocy economic system being discussed, if it transpires as you predict, is going to lead to some people literally losing their shirt.
rwmj 113 days ago link
roel_v 113 days ago link
The fourth issue is the one child policy which will cause Japan like stagnation in a few years.
? I not smirking at other people misfortune, just at the idiocy of an economic system engineered to shackle the people that have to live their lives under it to workarounds like this ( = use assets that could otherwise be used economically productive as stores of wealth), and at the arrogance of claiming a centrally led economy can provide both prosperity and freedom two things I find axiomatically fundamental human rights.
China: 1.58 woman, Netherlands: 1.76, Switzerland: 1.52, Germany: 1.36, Canada: 1.63.
your foresight or hindsight.
I rather people didn smirk when they are predicting other people misfortune. Not everyone has the benefit of Nike Air Max 95 Jacquard White
and unaffordable for most Chinese. Unmarried people live with multiple roommates in places that, to the American eye, look like slums. Rents in Beijing went up an average of 20% last year (although we talked my landlord down to 10%, I think). Now it might be that rents as a proportion of the owner income is not worth the hassle, thay could very well be. 20% rent increase per year (or even 10%) is not sustainable. Nor is that exponential curve in the article sustainable. Already Chinese universities are churning out far more graduates than there are new graduate level jobs. There also a steady stream of labor from the countryside seeking work in the cities and factories. Chinese local officials are routinely rotated between regions, so they have little long term commitment to the area they run and are only interested in results during their tenure. This has lead to a generation of highly short term management decisions, ramping up debt to fund prestige projects, with chronic lack of long term planning or infrastructure investment. Much of Chinese domestic driven growth is spending wasted on white elephant construction projects. When the bubble bursts they be left with nothing. The growth of her home city during that time has been phenomenal. Counting the construction cranes on the way from the airport to her sister Air Max Volt
China's Property Bubble Has Already Popped
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